That's the billion dollar question in front of the Supreme Court of the United States in Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Studios Inc. v. Grokster, Ltd. on Tuesday, March 29, 2005.

The "Betamax Rule," taken from the Supreme Court case Sony Corp. v. Universal City Studios, Inc., asserts that inventors may create new copying technologies as long as they are capable of "substantial noninfringing uses." This balanced approach to assessing the legality of copying technology has provided a fertile ground for the emergence of many widely-used inventions, like VCRs, Blogs, and Email (see the EFF's Countdown to the Grokster Argument page for more).

In addition to the named litigants, over 15 organizations have filed amicus briefs on the issue of "Whether the Ninth Circuit erred in concluding, contrary to long-established principles of secondary liability in copyright law (and in acknowledged conflict with the Seventh Circuit), that the Internet-based "file sharing" services Grokster and StreamCast should be immunized from copyright liability for the millions of daily acts of copyright infringement that occur on their services and that constitute at least 90% of the total use of the services."

Will the Court find a way to reconcile the Betamax ruling with file sharing activities?

I suspect some of the Justices will favor a new approach to assessing file sharing technology, one that pays homage to the established economic power of the Copyright Owners. American entertainment is heralded as a great pillar of the U.S. economy. And regardless of the apparent inequities in the distribution of compensation within the industry, the Court may be forced to protect this precious "domestic product."

On the other hand, I don't envision a total abandonment of the Betamax test. Judging from the Supreme Court's track record, it will most likely focus on and fashion a rule based on factual distinctions between the VCR and file sharing technologies.

Or they may simply affirm the Ninth Circuit's decision, although "the Supreme Court has reversed a higher percentage of Ninth Circuit decisions than those of any other Circuit."

...it's anybody's guess.